9 creators. 9 hits. Then a $250k follow-on.

Two earnings reports this morning, one midterm election five days out, and a 10-year F-35 framework sitting unsigned in a congressional in-box. For precious metals investors who think defense spending is somebody else’s sector, today is worth a closer look.

What’s Driving the Market

On October 22, the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin announced a framework agreement for 10 years of F-35 production and sustainment covering at least 850 U.S. aircraft, across Lots 21 through 30, at a continued production rate of 156 aircraft per year. The language matters: the agreement is a framework, not a signed procurement contract, and it remains subject to congressional approval and funding. That funding vote is now five days away from getting a great deal more complicated.

Midterm elections on November 3 could dramatically shift the makeup of Congress. A continuing resolution is in place through December 11, 2026, effectively keeping most federal funding at current levels until then rather than moving appropriations forward on the President’s FY2027 request. The president’s effort to secure $350 billion in mandatory defense funding, a central element of his FY2027 proposal, would become far harder to advance if Democrats gain control of either chamber. That is the appropriations arithmetic at stake Tuesday, and it is the arithmetic that converts a framework agreement into real purchase orders, or doesn’t.

The FY2027 proposal seeks $1.5 trillion in total defense budgetary resources, including $350 billion in additional mandatory funding tied to administration priorities that include munitions and defense industrial base expansion and the Golden Dome missile defense effort.

The Investment Opportunity

Most coverage today will track L3Harris and Howmet as defense electronics and aero-structures names. That framing misses the signal that matters to this publication.

Howmet is a global leader in lightweight metals engineering and manufacturing, with products that include nickel, titanium, aluminum, and cobalt, used worldwide in the aerospace, commercial transportation, gas turbine, and other markets. In the six months ended June 30, 2026, the company derived approximately 68% of its revenue from products sold to the commercial and defense aerospace markets. That is not a coincidence of timing. It is the downstream consequence of every defense budget that actually gets spent.

Howmet sits at the high-value conversion end of the supply chain, turning titanium and nickel alloys into forged engine blades, structural frames, and landing gear components that OEMs cannot easily source elsewhere. When the Pentagon signs a lot-production contract for 156 F-35s per year, that demand can propagate into Howmet’s order book because its Engineered Structures segment is vertically integrated across titanium ingot and mill products, titanium forgings, titanium extrusions, and machining services for airframe, wing, aero-engine, and landing gear components.

Analysts expect Howmet to post earnings of $1.37 per share and revenue of about $2.59 billion for Q3. That compares with last quarter’s reported $1.33 EPS against a $1.24 estimate. In second-quarter 2026, Howmet posted revenue of $2.55 billion, up 24% year over year, while adjusted EPS rose to $1.33, driven by growth in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, and gas turbines. Management guided for Q3 revenue in the range of $2.56 billion to $2.58 billion and full-year 2026 revenue of $10.0 billion to $10.1 billion. On that basis, the $2.59 billion consensus would be roughly in line to slightly above the company’s Q3 revenue guidance, not a meaningful miss. That makes this morning’s number less about a guidance gap and more about whether demand is strong enough to keep guidance moving higher into year-end.

On the electronics side, L3Harris is slated to report Q3 2026 results today, October 29, 2026, before the market open, having delivered an earnings surprise of 11.79% in the last reported quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings stands at $3.00 per share, which would indicate growth of 11.1% from the prior-year quarter. Q2 highlights included orders of $7.3 billion, a book-to-bill of 1.2x, a record $42 billion backlog, and diluted EPS of $3.13, up 28%.

Risks to Monitor

The bullish case rests on a specific sequence: elections produce a Congress that funds the FY2027 request at or near the requested level, the F-35 framework converts to a formal contract, and 156 jets per year of sustained production keeps specialist alloy demand elevated through the decade. Supply-chain consolidation and limited qualified mill capacity in titanium forgings and specialty melts represent a constraint that could slow execution even when orders are strong.

The bearish case is simpler. Lawmakers have not enacted full-year appropriations for FY2027, leaving major programs operating under a continuing resolution through December 11, 2026 and leaving the F-35 framework dependent on future funding actions. A Democratic House would be more likely to push back on the mandatory funding component. Supply disruptions, labor and material cost inflation, and technical or schedule challenges could delay program deliveries and impact revenues and margins.

Bottom Line

The aerospace and defense specialty materials sector, valued at $29.6 billion in 2026 and projected to reach $56.8 billion by 2035 at a 7.5% compound annual growth rate, is one of the few industrial markets where defense-budget arithmetic translates into real physical demand for the specialty metals complex. Howmet’s Q3 number this morning is not just an aero read. It is a demand signal for titanium and nickel alloys that tells precious metals investors whether the rearmament supercycle is pulling raw material through the system or simply generating headlines. Watch the revenue line against the company’s $2.56 billion to $2.58 billion guidance range. That gap, or absence of one, is the story.

The structural case behind that demand signal extends well beyond a single quarter’s revenue line. Global defense budgets approaching $2.7 trillion annually, combined with NATO’s new 5% GDP spending benchmark, are the macro engine converting rearmament headlines into multi-year order books.